Click here to watch the full panel discussion

WASHINGTON, D.C.–Congressman French Hill, Vice Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, led the first installment of the House Intelligence Committee’s “Beyond the SCIF” series for the 118th Congress with his panel on “China’s economic forecast” hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

What Was Discussed

• Chinese economic forecasting and its relevance to understanding China’s foreign policy

• Projections of Chinese economic growth, the factors that affect it, and events that could alter its current economic projection

• Structural issues in China’s economy, such as debt, demographics, and China’s deteriorating relationship with the West

“This is the first ‘Beyond the SCIF’ for this season. We try to do them at the end of the year where we’re formulating our strategic plan for the next year, but also we’re looking retrospectively at the work that we’ve done.”

“French Hill’s financial services and economics background really allows us to dig deep on some of the issues that we might not otherwise be able to, and I know that’s part of his effort today, and I greatly appreciate it.” – Chairman Mike Turner

Notable Quotes

“Since the CCP leader Xi’s last decade of asserting his goal of Chinese communist dominance – economically, militarily, diplomatically – conversations like this are crucial as we assess their aspirational and realized influence and work with like-minded partners and allies on a right-sized response.” – Congressman French Hill

“What I was struck by, in all of the media coverage, is just how much China’s structural slowdown was a key part of the narrative going into the meeting itself. Virtually every single story that was discussing the summit was talking about how Xi was entering from a position in which he had to defend China’s economic record. And we haven’t seen that before. And it’s ironically belied by China’s own growth statistics, which still say that China was going to be on track for achieving their targeted growth rates. I don’t think that’s the case that’s happened over the course of this year, but it just shows how much the actual conversation, I think, has changed around China’s economy in general.” – Logan Wright

“China’s economy twenty years ago was much, much smaller and much less globally integrated, and the impact of domestic dysfunction was less widely felt. I think now the significant concern is understanding how an increasingly dysfunctional Chinese economic model is going to reverberate throughout the globe.” – Jude Blanchett

Panel Speakers:

• Congressman French Hill, Vice Chairman, House Financial Services Committee; Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

• Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Dr. Logan Wright, Partner & Director of China Markets Research, Rhodium Group; Non-Resident Senior Associate & Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, Center for Strategic and International Studies